FORECASTING ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN THE AGRICULTURE SECTOR OF IRAN USING ARIMA AND ARCH MODELS

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MOUSAVI S.N.; MOKHTARI ZEINAB; FARAJZADEH ZAKARIA

مرکز اطلاعات علمی Scientific Information Database (SID) - Trusted Source for Research and Academic Resources

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Paper Information

Journal: ENERGY ECONOMICS REVIEW Year:2011 | Volume:7 | Issue:27 Page(s): 181-195

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Information Journal Paper

Title

FORECASTING ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN THE AGRICULTURE SECTOR OF IRAN USING ARIMA AND ARCH MODELS

Author(s)

MOUSAVI S.N. | MOKHTARI ZEINAB | FARAJZADEH ZAKARIA | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

FORECASTINGQ2

ENERGY CARRIERSQ2

CONSUMPTIONQ2

ELECTRICITYQ2

OIL PRODUCTSQ2

ARIMAQ2

ARCHQ3

Abstract

Energy is an important and key input in the whole economy and agriculture sector production. In recent years due to the increase in the financial burden of energy subsidies, targeting these subsidies has been considered. Given the likely impact of targeting on energy CONSUMPTION, this study forecasts the CONSUMPTION of ENERGY CARRIERS (oil products and ELECTRICITY) in agriculture using ARIMA and ARCH models. The selected period covers 1347-1384 (1968-2005), with the last three years used to test the FORECASTING ability of the models. The results of the study indicate a small increment in energy CONSUMPTION in agriculture. Prediction error of ARIMA was lower than the ARCH one except for OIL PRODUCTS.

Cites

STRUCTURAL CHANGES IN IRAN’S AGRICULTURE: A PERSPECTIVE TO 2025

References

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APA: Copy

MOUSAVI, S.N., MOKHTARI, ZEINAB, & FARAJZADEH, ZAKARIA. (2011). FORECASTING ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN THE AGRICULTURE SECTOR OF IRAN USING ARIMA AND ARCH MODELS. ENERGY ECONOMICS REVIEW, 7(27), 181-195. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/99522/en

Vancouver: Copy

MOUSAVI S.N., MOKHTARI ZEINAB, FARAJZADEH ZAKARIA. FORECASTING ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN THE AGRICULTURE SECTOR OF IRAN USING ARIMA AND ARCH MODELS. ENERGY ECONOMICS REVIEW[Internet]. 2011;7(27):181-195. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/99522/en

IEEE: Copy

S.N. MOUSAVI, ZEINAB MOKHTARI, and ZAKARIA FARAJZADEH, “FORECASTING ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN THE AGRICULTURE SECTOR OF IRAN USING ARIMA AND ARCH MODELS,” ENERGY ECONOMICS REVIEW, vol. 7, no. 27, pp. 181–195, 2011, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/99522/en

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