ESTIMATION OF A STRUCTURAL MODEL FOR GASOLINE AND DIESEL DEMAND IN IRAN'S TRANSPORTATION SECTOR

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SHAKERI ABBAS; MOHAMMADI TEYMOUR; JAHANGARD ESFANDIYAR; MOUSAVI MIR HOSSEIN

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Journal: ENERGY ECONOMICS REVIEW Year:2010 | Volume:7 | Issue:25 Page(s): 1-31

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Title

ESTIMATION OF A STRUCTURAL MODEL FOR GASOLINE AND DIESEL DEMAND IN IRAN'S TRANSPORTATION SECTOR

Author(s)

SHAKERI ABBAS | MOHAMMADI TEYMOUR | JAHANGARD ESFANDIYAR | MOUSAVI MIR HOSSEIN | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

TRANSPORTATIONQ2

OIL PRODUCTSQ2

STOCHASTIC TRENDQ3

STRUCTURAL TIME SERIESQ2

KALMAN FILTER ALGORITHMQ3

STATE SPACE MODELQ3

Abstract

The economic and technical changes which followed the first oil market crisis led to the development of a vast number of models to analyze and forecast energy demand. The TRANSPORTATION sector is one of the most important consumers in the energy market, especially in the OIL PRODUCTS market, and as such, has been subject to political interventions of governments. In this context, this paper models gasoline and diesel demand through a three-step maximization of utility function subject to expenditure constraints in each step. The model is constructed in a STRUCTURAL TIME SERIES models framework, using data for the period 1358-86, and has an invisible trend component. After transforming the model to state-space form, we apply the KALMAN FILTER ALGORITHM to estimate the model through the maximum likelihood method. The results indicate that: 1. the trend is smooth 2. the process of movement is nonlinear. Estimated demand functions show that price elasticity of gasoline and diesel demand is less than one with short and long-run elasticity for gasoline of -0.24 and -0.3 respectively and for diesel at -0.2 for both. The income elasticity of demand for gasoline and diesel is respectively 1.71 and .84. Sensitivity of demand to vehicle ownership that use gasoline and diesel are 1.41 and 0.75 respectively.

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APA: Copy

SHAKERI, ABBAS, MOHAMMADI, TEYMOUR, JAHANGARD, ESFANDIYAR, & MOUSAVI, MIR HOSSEIN. (2010). ESTIMATION OF A STRUCTURAL MODEL FOR GASOLINE AND DIESEL DEMAND IN IRAN'S TRANSPORTATION SECTOR. ENERGY ECONOMICS REVIEW, 7(25), 1-31. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/99568/en

Vancouver: Copy

SHAKERI ABBAS, MOHAMMADI TEYMOUR, JAHANGARD ESFANDIYAR, MOUSAVI MIR HOSSEIN. ESTIMATION OF A STRUCTURAL MODEL FOR GASOLINE AND DIESEL DEMAND IN IRAN'S TRANSPORTATION SECTOR. ENERGY ECONOMICS REVIEW[Internet]. 2010;7(25):1-31. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/99568/en

IEEE: Copy

ABBAS SHAKERI, TEYMOUR MOHAMMADI, ESFANDIYAR JAHANGARD, and MIR HOSSEIN MOUSAVI, “ESTIMATION OF A STRUCTURAL MODEL FOR GASOLINE AND DIESEL DEMAND IN IRAN'S TRANSPORTATION SECTOR,” ENERGY ECONOMICS REVIEW, vol. 7, no. 25, pp. 1–31, 2010, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/99568/en

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